Sooners attempt to continue mastery of Aggies

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2007 - College Station, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sitting in a logjam atop the Big 12 standings, the sixth-ranked Texas A&M Aggies return home to the friendly confines of Reed Arena, as they play host to the Oklahoma Sooners in conference action this afternoon.

The Aggies had an extended nine-game win streak halted on Wednesday, as they dropped a two-point decision at Texas Tech (70-68). The loss was the first in-conference for A&M, which is tied with three other teams for first place in the Big 12 at 4-1.

Sitting right in the middle of the league standings is Oklahoma, which fell to 3-3 in Big 12 play with Monday's 66-61 loss at rival Oklahoma State. The Sooners have now dropped four of their last seven games and will need to get hot down the stretch to get consideration for the postseason.

Oklahoma has owned this series, winning 25 of the previous 26 meetings, including a 10-1 mark in College Station.

The Sooners certainly had their opportunities in Stillwater earlier in the week, but could not get over the hump against the Cowboys. Senior forward Nate Carter continued his torrid pace since the beginning of Big 12 play, erupting for a double-double of 23 points and 11 rebounds in the loss. Michael Neal was the only other Sooner to join Carter in double figures, posting 13 points in the five-point setback. Carter is fourth on the team in scoring at 9.1 ppg, but has more than doubled that average in league affairs (18.3 ppg). Longar Longar currently leads the team in both scoring (11.3 ppg) and rebounding (7.1 rpg). Neal is a close second at 10.7 ppg, while both Tony Crocker (9.9 ppg) and Carter are closing in on double digits. The team as a whole is netting 69.6 ppg and has done a much better job defensively, limiting the opposition to a mere 57.4 ppg, while holding them under 40 percent shooting (.380).

The Aggies know a thing or two about defensive intensity as well. The team is yielding a meager 54.2 ppg, holding foes to just .352 shooting, including .272 from behind the arc. Offensively, the team has gotten the job done as well, shooting .512 from the floor, resulting in a healthy 76.2 ppg. Acie Law leads four players with double-digit averages, netting 16.5 ppg, while doubling as the team's primary distributor (91). Joseph Jones (13.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg) and Antanas Kavaliauskas (11.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg) complement with their inside games, while Josh Carter (11.7 ppg) is the team's top long range threat (.490 from three-point range, 47-of-96). It was a nip-and-tuck game all the way in Lubbock this week, but in the end, Texas A&M's nine-game win streak came to a close. Law did what he could to earn the victory, erupting for 26 points, on 9-of-15 shots from the floor. Dominique Kirk posted 12 points and Jones chipped in with 11, but Carter was held scoreless in the game in 30 minutes of action. Despite shooting .532 from the floor, A&M was outscored 22-13 at the free-throw line and committed 15 costly turnovers in the narrow defeat.

Pokerfanatik NCAA Basketball Betting News

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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