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07/27/2010 - Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Neil Walker finished 3-for-4 with a solo home run as Pittsburgh continued Colorado's second-half slide with a 4-2 victory at Coors Field.
Zach Duke (5-9) started the three-game set with six solid innings, allowing two runs on just three hits with four strikeouts and a pair of walks. Octavio Dotel pitched the ninth frame for his 21st save of the season. The Pirates snapped a four-game skid with the victory.
Jorge De La Rosa (3-3) took the loss, surrendering three runs -- two earned -- on six hits with eight strikeouts and two walks over seven frames. Brad Hawpe and Clint Barmes hit back-to-back home runs for the Rockies, who have lost seven straight.
The Rockies activated their star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki from the 15-day disabled list before the game after he missed 33 games with a fractured left wrist. He went 0-for-4 and committed his sixth error of the season.
The Pirates jumped out for two runs in the top of the first as Andrew McCutchen shot a ball down the left-field line for a double and scored on Jose Tabata's single to center. Walker followed with a bunt single, and after a double play grounder from Garrett Jones, a wild pitch plated Tabata.
Colorado didn't score a run until the fifth frame when Hawpe measured up a first-pitch fastball, driving it into the left field seats. Barmes followed with a homer of his own, tying the game at 2-2.
The Pirates didn't waver, striking right back in the sixth with the aide of a Tulowitzki fielding error. He misplayed Tabata's grounder then Walker reached on an infield single. Jones doubled home Tabata, putting runners on second and third with nobody out, but the Pirates failed to score again. Pedro Alvarez struck out, Lastings Milledge was walked to load the bases and Ronny Cedeno bounced into an inning-ending double play.
The Rockies threatened in the home half of the seventh with Miguel Olivo's leadoff double. Hawpe moved him to third with a groundout, but the Pirates brought the infield in so the catcher couldn't score on Barmes' grounder to third. Pinch-hitter Seth Smith walked, but Evan Meek retired Dexter Fowler on a grounder to the mound to thwart the threat.
"We need to come up with a hit there," said Rockies manager Jim Tracy. "That's basically what's been going on."
Walker hit a solo home run in the eighth to build a two-run cushion at 4-2.
The Rockies brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth after Hawpe's two- out double to left. However, Dotel got Jason Giambi to loft a fly ball to left to end the game.
Game Notes
Colorado closer Huston Street was taken to the hospital after being hit in the lower abdomen by a line drive off the bat of Ian Stewart during batting practice. He suffered a right abdominal contusion...With Tulowitzki's return, the club designated infielder Brad Eldred for assignment to clear a roster spot...Hawpe hit his sixth home run of the season, while Barmes clubbed his eighth.
<< Memphis rookie Vasquez has ankle surgery
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Memphis Grizzlies rookie guard Greivis Vasquez
underwent surgery on his right ankle Tuesday to remove a bone spur.
Vasquez, who starred at the University of Maryland, had the procedure
performed in B
<< Lee fans 13, Cruz hits game-winning HR in 10th as Rangers down A's
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cliff Lee set a career high with 13
strikeouts over nine brilliant innings and Nelson Cruz belted a two-run, game-
winning home run in the bottom of the 10th, as the Texas Rangers edged the
Oakland
<< Myers' CG, six-run seventh gets Astros past Cubs
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brett Myers went the distance and Lance
Berkman's grand slam capped a six-run seventh inning as Houston downed
Chicago, 6-1, in the second of three between the clubs at Minute Maid Park.
Hunter
<< ECU assistant resigns over possible NCAA violations
Greenville, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - East Carolina assistant football coach Mark
Nelson announced his resignation Tuesday after possible NCAA violations were
uncovered regarding the illegal observation of voluntary summer workouts.
Nelson s
Valencia, Twins stay hot in rout of Royals >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danny Valencia knocked in three and
collected four more hits while Carl Pavano turned in his eighth consecutive
winning decision in an 11-2 Twins victory over Kansas City.
Valencia was coming of
Reds subdue Brewers with 19-hit barrage >>
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Scott Rolen was one of three Cincinnati
players with four hits and drove in three runs as the Reds walloped the
Brewers, 12-4, snapping Milwaukee's five-game winning streak.
Brandon Phillips we
Bay out of Mets lineup >>
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Bay is experiencing concussion-like
symptoms several days after crashing into the outfield wall while making a
catch against the Dodgers and was not in the Mets' lineup against St. Louis on
Tuesday
Billingsley, Ethier lead Dodgers over Padres >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chad Billingsley pitched six shutout frames,
and his pinch-hitter, Andre Ethier, came through with a big hit in the top of
the seventh, as the Dodgers kicked off an important NL West three-game set
with a
New York, NY – October 3, 2007 – The dress rehearsal is over! The NHL preseason has ended and now that fans have had a glimpse of what is to come it is time to hit the book! Stanley Cup odds are live at MySportsbook.com, the world’s largest online sportsbook and casino.
The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings remain on top of the odds charts after an impressive start in the preseason. Betting lines opened for both teams at 6-1 in June. Since then the Sens have fallen to 7-1 and the Red Wings are now caught in a pack including the defending champion Carolina Hurricanes, the San Jose Sharks and the Anaheim Ducks, all at 10-1.
MySportsbook.com has also posted props on each team’s point total for the regular season. The Senators lead the charge at 108.5 followed by the Ducks at 106.5. Detroit will attempt a repeat for the prize as the Red Wings are deadlocked with the Predators at 104.5 a piece. The temporary loss of highly touted rookie Evgeni Malkin puts a lot of pressure on the stick of assistant captain Sidney Crosby - his lowly Pittsburgh Penguins are listed at 71.5.
Even if bettors are not brave enough to put their money on the underdog, an early bet on the favorites at sportsbook.com tends to produce bigger payouts than a mid-season wager. Placing a $1,000 bet last summer on the Detroit Red Wings or Ottawa Senators would have paid out to $8,000 and $10,000 respectively, opposed to a $2,500 or $3,000 payout at the beginning of the playoffs.
| Ottawa Senators Detroit Red Wings Carolina Hurricanes San Jose Sharks Anaheim Ducks Philadelphia Flyers Calgary Flames New Jersey Devils Buffalo Sabres Dallas Stars New York Rangers Nashville Predators Vancouver Canucks Colorado Avalanche Minnesota Wild Tampa Bay Lightning Boston Bruins Florida Panthers Montreal Canadiens Atlanta Thrashers Toronto Maple Leafs Edmonton Oilers Phoenix Coyotes Los Angeles Kings New York Islanders Columbus Blue Jackets St. Louis Blues Pittsburgh Penguins Washington Capitals Chicago Blackhawks |
7-1 10-1 10-1 10-1 10-1 12-1 12-1 12-1 12-1 15-1 15-1 15-1 20-1 20-1 25-1 25-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 40-1 40-1 50-1 50-1 80-1 80-1 100-1 100-1 |
NHL Regular Season Points - Team Must Play 82 Games
| Team Ottawa Senators Anaheim Ducks Detroit Red Wings Nashville Predators San Jose Sharks Calgary Flames Philadelphia Flyers New Jersey Devils Buffalo Sabres Carolina Hurricanes Dallas Stars New York Rangers Minnesota Wild Atlanta Thrashers Montreal Canadiens Team Los Angeles Kings Tampa Bay Lightening Vancouver Canucks Boston Bruins Colorado Avalanche Edmonton Oilers Phoenix Coyotes Toronto Maple Leafs Florida Panthers Columbus Blue Jackets New York Islanders Chicago Blackhawks St. Louis Blues Washington Capitals Pittsburgh Penguins |
Over/Under 108.5 106.5 104.5 104.5 103.5 101.5 100.5 99.5 97.5 97.5 97.5 95.5 94.5 93.5 92.5 Over/Under 91.5 91.5 91.5 89.5 89.5 88.5 88.5 86.5 84.5 82.5 80.5 72.5 72.5 72.5 71.5 |
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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