Alouettes head to Edmonton to take on Eskimos

Football Betting Lines

07/07/2010 - Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The lone meeting between winless teams in week two of the 2010 CFL season takes place at Commonwealth Stadium as the Edmonton Eskimos and the Montreal Alouettes square off.

The defending Grey Cup champion Alouettes, who ran the table in all nine of their regular season home games last season and lost just three times on the road, were immediately challenged in this year's opening game when they replayed last year's title game against the Saskatchewan Roughriders in Regina. In what eventually turned into the third-highest scoring game in CFL history, the Als found themselves on the outside looking in at a 54-51 double- overtime loss.

Now a three-time winner of the league's most valuable offensive player award, Montreal quarterback Anthony Calvillo refused to let his team go quietly as he completed 28-of-42 passes for 368 yards and four touchdowns, yet even he could not stop a determined Roughriders group that nearly relived the drama that cost them the trophy last year when they were flagged for having too many men on the field during a crucial point in the title game. Receiver Kerry Watkins emerged as the primary go-to guy down the field for Calvillo and the Als, catching five balls for 106 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while S.J. Green also recorded a pair of receiving scores in the decision.

Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of the offense for the Als was that of their rushing attack, a facet of the game which had been a strong suit of Montreal last season when it placed second in the league with an average of 119.9 ypg on the ground. The opener saw Avon Cobourne, one of the most aggressive and exciting running backs in the league, post just 39 total yards and a score on 10 attempts. In 2009, Cobourne not only finished sixth in the league in rushing with 1,214 yards, he also led all players during the regular season with 13 rushing scores. The team as a whole managed just 91 yards on 18 carries in the first game of the season.

As for the other half of this meeting, the Eskimos had the weakest opening to the season of any program, falling to British Columbia at home by a final of 25-10. If not for a four-yard touchdown run by Arkee Whitlock in the second quarter, the offensive effort for the Eskimos would have appeared even more dire. Whitlock finished with 116 yards on 16 carries, responsible for the lion's share of the unit's 139 rushing yards, while quarterback Ricky Ray managed to convert 27-of-40 passes for another 229 yards, yet he was sacked five times and failed to record a single passing score.

On a positive note, Edmonton's defense didn't exactly roll over versus the Lions, instead limiting BC to just a single touchdown and forcing the visitors to kick their way to a victory with six field goals. Permitting BC to generate a lofty 395 yards of offense might appear to be a bit unsightly for the Eskimos, but at least the Lions were held out of the end zone for almost the entire outing.

However, with just a single sack of Casey Printers, Edmonton showed the same form at the line of scrimmage that it did in 2009 when it ranked last in the league in sacks with a mere 32 during the regular season. Failure to get to the opposing QB left the Eskimos exposed in the secondary at times last season, resulting in 26 passing touchdowns allowed.

Montreal was an offensive beast last season and again showed that same prowess in the 2010 opener, so expecting the Eskimos to grind the Als to a halt would be asking quite a bit. Calvillo threw a league-best 26 touchdowns last year and could have easily done even more damage had the team not called off the dogs in several lopsided decisions. Chances are Cobourne is going to come out of his shell for this meeting as well, which means the matchup between he and Whitlock (1,293 yards, 12 TDs in 2009) should be something of great interest.

Considering how dominant Calvillo has been in the last couple of seasons, it is easy to see how Ray might get lost in the shuffle, even at home in front of a favorable crowd. In the last two seasons, Ray has thrown for more than 10,000 yards and has connected on 48 TDs, yet it seems like forever since he tossed a remarkable 35 touchdowns for the Eskimos in 2003. Staying in the pocket and getting the job done will be paramount for Ray, having already been tabbed for a pair of fumbles thus far.

These teams met twice last season, with both meetings coming before the end of July. At Montreal on July 9 the Als completely crushed Edmonton in a 50-16 final, yet three weeks later the Eskimos made things more respectable and in fact handed Montreal one of only three losses on the season in a 33-19 final. As a result of those two outcomes, the all-time regular season series between the clubs now stands at 37-21-2 in favor of Edmonton, dating back to the 1961 campaign.

The passing defense for the Eskimos is going to be put to the test by Calvillo and Montreal, a test that Edmonton is almost certain to lose given that the Als are having to play from behind just to keep up in the division standings.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.